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Topic 281 · Geography & Places in News

Monsoon 2026: below-normal forecast and drivers

10 MCQs · tap an option to check it · All answers

Revise the 12 points first Book 1 RATNA
  1. Core Trigger: On 29 May 2026 IMD cut its monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average from 92%, citing developing El Nino.
  2. Forecast Odds: The model error is ±4%; IMD gave an 84% chance of below-normal rain and 60% of 'deficient'.
  3. Linked Head: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's MPC held repo at 5.25% on 5 June 2026, flagging El Nino as a food-inflation risk.
  4. Benchmark: The LPA is 87 cm, the June–September average for 1971–2020.
  5. Data / Report: IMD categories as % of LPA: deficient under 90; below normal 90–95; normal 96–104; above normal 105–110; excess over 110.
  6. Drivers: Neutral ENSO was moving towards El Nino, while the Indian Ocean Dipole was expected to stay neutral.
  7. India Link: Onset over Kerala came on 4 June 2026, three days after the normal 1 June date.
  8. Headquarters: IMD works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences and is headquartered in New Delhi.
  9. Founded: IMD was established in 1875, after the 1864 Calcutta cyclone and monsoon failures of 1866 and 1871.
  10. Landmark: At IMD's 150th Foundation Day on 14 January 2025, PM Modi launched Mission Mausam.
  11. Forecast System: Since 2021 IMD uses a Multi-Model Ensemble including MMCFS.
  12. Definition: El Nino is the warm ENSO phase that usually weakens the monsoon; a positive Indian Ocean Dipole usually aids it.
Question 1 of 10

On 29 May 2026 IMD cut its monsoon forecast from 92% to what share of the LPA?

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Answer: (D) 90%

Core Trigger: On 29 May 2026 IMD cut its monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average from 92%, citing developing El Nino.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 1

Question 2 of 10

What model error did IMD's 29 May 2026 monsoon forecast carry?

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Answer: (C) Plus or minus 4%

Forecast Odds: The model error is ±4%; IMD gave an 84% chance of below-normal rain and 60% of 'deficient'.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 2

Question 3 of 10

At what rate did the MPC under Governor Sanjay Malhotra hold repo on 5 June 2026?

Show answer

Answer: (D) 5.25%

Linked Head: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's MPC held repo at 5.25% on 5 June 2026, flagging El Nino as a food-inflation risk.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 3

Question 4 of 10

The Long Period Average of June to September monsoon rainfall is how much?

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Answer: (C) 87 cm

Benchmark: The LPA is 87 cm, the June–September average for 1971–2020.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 4

Question 5 of 10

In IMD's categories, which range of LPA counts as normal rainfall?

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Answer: (B) 96 to 104%

Data / Report: IMD categories as % of LPA: deficient under 90; below normal 90–95; normal 96–104; above normal 105–110; excess over 110.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 5

Question 6 of 10

Which is/are correct? 1. Neutral ENSO was moving towards El Nino. 2. The Indian Ocean Dipole was expected to turn strongly positive.

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Answer: (A) Only 1

Drivers: Neutral ENSO was moving towards El Nino, while the Indian Ocean Dipole was expected to stay neutral.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 6

Question 7 of 10

Where is IMD headquartered?

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Answer: (A) New Delhi

Headquarters: IMD works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences and is headquartered in New Delhi.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 8

Question 8 of 10

In which year was IMD established?

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Answer: (B) 1875

Founded: IMD was established in 1875, after the 1864 Calcutta cyclone and monsoon failures of 1866 and 1871.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 9

Question 9 of 10

At IMD's 150th Foundation Day, PM Modi launched which mission?

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Answer: (A) Mission Mausam

Landmark: At IMD's 150th Foundation Day on 14 January 2025, PM Modi launched Mission Mausam.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 10

Question 10 of 10

Which is/are correct? 1. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole usually weakens the monsoon. 2. El Nino is the warm ENSO phase that usually weakens the monsoon.

Show answer

Answer: (B) Only 2

Definition: El Nino is the warm ENSO phase that usually weakens the monsoon; a positive Indian Ocean Dipole usually aids it.From Book 1 RATNA, topic 281, point 12

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