CURRENT AFFAIRS | 01 OCTOBER 2026
2026 Southwest Monsoon Closes with 12.6% Deficit — Worst Since 2015
On October 1, 2026, IMD Director-General M. Mohapatra confirmed that the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season had officially recorded a total rainfall of 759.4 mm — just 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm — making it a 12.6% deficit season and the driest monsoon since 2015 (which recorded 758.2 mm). The monsoon is now in its withdrawal phase and likely to fully exit by the first week of October, after which the Northeast Monsoon takes over for peninsular India.
This story matters for CLAT 2027 on multiple levels: as a straightforward GK fact (a frequently tested current affairs topic), and as a foundation for Legal Reasoning passages touching on disaster management law, climate obligations, the right to water, and India’s commitments under the Paris Agreement.
June 2026: 106.8 mm — only 65% of LPA, the biggest single-month miss of the season. IMD’s April forecast had predicted 92% of LPA. July 2026: 283.3 mm — 101% of LPA, normal; central India saw +33% above normal (floods in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra). August 2026: 213.3 mm — 84% of LPA. September 2026: 155.1 mm — 92.4% of LPA, slightly above the below-normal forecast.
The Regional Picture: Northeast India’s Historic Drought
The most alarming regional statistic was from East and Northeast India: rainfall was 25.6% below normal — the driest monsoon in that region since 1901. This is a 125-year record. States like Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, and West Bengal received drastically lower rainfall, with severe implications for agriculture (tea, jute, paddy), water supply, and power generation (hydroelectric).
The Southern Peninsula also saw a significant deficit — 24.3% below normal — affecting Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. By contrast, Central India had excess rainfall in July, causing floods in some districts while other regions simultaneously experienced drought-like conditions.
The El Niño Explanation
The 2026 monsoon’s deficit was broadly predicted. IMD’s April forecast called for 92% of LPA; the May update revised this down to 90%; the final outcome was 87%. The culprit is a strengthening El Niño — a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that disrupts atmospheric circulation globally. El Niño years typically suppress the South Asian Monsoon by weakening the cross-equatorial flow that drives moisture into the Indian subcontinent.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), established in 1875, is the national meteorological service of India under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. It issues official monsoon forecasts, cyclone warnings, and climate outlooks. IMD is a member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN specialised agency. For CLAT: IMD is the body that declares the official monsoon onset, progress, and withdrawal dates.
Constitutional and Legal Framework: Disaster, Agriculture, and Rights
Article 48A (Directive Principle): The State must endeavour to protect and improve the environment — a monsoon deficit is a climate-linked environmental stress, and the State’s duty to respond arises partly from this provision.
Article 21 and the Right to Water: The Supreme Court has recognised the right to water as part of the right to life under Article 21. In Subhash Kumar v. State of Bihar (1991), the right to life was held to include the right to enjoy pollution-free water and air.
Disaster Management Act 2005: The DMA 2005 established the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) under the Prime Minister and the State Disaster Management Authorities. Drought is classified as a disaster under the DMA, and states are required to declare drought, release SDRF (State Disaster Response Fund), and activate NDRF assistance.
The Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 on December 12, 2015 (in force November 4, 2016), commits countries to holding global temperature rise to well below 2°C. India submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — committing to 50% of cumulative power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, and reducing GDP emissions intensity by 45% below 2005 levels. The 2026 monsoon deficit, potentially linked to climate change and El Niño intensification, is cited by climate scientists as evidence of the Paris Agreement’s urgency.
Agricultural and Economic Impact
A 12.6% monsoon deficit has significant ripple effects on India’s economy. Agriculture employs about 42% of India’s workforce and contributes ~16% to GDP. A deficit of this scale typically leads to: reduced kharif output and food price inflation (especially in pulses and vegetables), groundwater depletion, reduced reservoir levels affecting hydropower and drinking water, higher rural distress, and increased MGNREGA demand spikes.
Total 2026 SW Monsoon: 759.4 mm (87% of LPA of 868.6 mm). Deficit: 12.6%. Comparison year: 2015 (758.2 mm, slightly drier). Worst-affected region: East and Northeast India — 25.6% below normal, driest since 1901. June miss: 65% of LPA. July anomaly: 101% (normal nationally, +33% central India). IMD DG: M. Mohapatra. Cause: Strengthening El Niño. Law to cite: DMA 2005 (NDMA), Art. 21 (right to water), Paris Agreement.
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