CURRENT AFFAIRS | 18 JUNE 2026
On June 11, the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions have developed, forecasting a 62-63% chance of the phenomenon strengthening into a “very strong” event during the October-January window. El Niño is an abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters — the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle — and it carries outsized consequences for India. Historically, El Niño years correlate with dry weather and a weaker monsoon across India, Southeast Asia and Australia, while bringing heavy rain and floods to western Latin America. With India’s agriculture still heavily monsoon-dependent, a strong El Niño threatens the rabi (winter-spring) crop and, by extension, food prices.
The price backdrop is captured by the FAO Food Price Index, which registered 130.8 in May 2026 — still comfortably below the March 2022 all-time high of 160.2 reached in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a specialised agency of the United Nations, headquartered in Rome, and its monthly index is the global benchmark for tracking the international prices of a basket of food commodities. Within the index, vegetable oils were the standout, with the FAO veg-oil sub-index hitting 185 in May, up 21.5% year-on-year, driven substantially by the diversion of oils into biofuel production — a textbook case of food-versus-fuel competition.
Back home, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) food inflation is slowly edging up, with the latest reading at 4.78%, recovering from a deflationary trough of -5.02%. Two consecutive bumper harvests — in 2024-25 and 2025-26 — have so far cushioned domestic prices, but a “very strong” El Niño could erode that buffer by hitting the rabi crop. CPI food inflation in India is measured by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), while monsoon forecasting is the domain of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The interplay of these institutions is where geography meets economics meets governance — precisely the crossover CLAT examiners enjoy.
For the aspirant, the conceptual map is worth fixing firmly. ENSO has three phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and a neutral state in between. The mechanism behind El Niño’s monsoon impact is the weakening of the Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric loop over the tropical Pacific — which shifts rainfall away from the Indian subcontinent. India’s cropping calendar splits into the kharif (sown with the southwest monsoon, June-July; harvested autumn) and rabi (sown in winter; harvested spring) seasons. El Niño years often mean weaker monsoons and lower kharif output, a recurring geography-plus-economy theme that rewards students who can connect the dots from a Pacific Ocean anomaly to a vegetable-vendor’s price tag.
This topic is GK- and geography-led rather than litigation-led, so the “framework” is institutional. The FAO is a UN specialised agency (established 1945, headquartered in Rome) that publishes the global Food Price Index. NOAA is the US scientific agency that declares ENSO phases; the IMD is India’s monsoon-forecasting authority. CPI food inflation in India is computed by the NSO under MoSPI. ENSO comprises three phases — El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool) and neutral — and operates through the Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is a perennial GK and geography favourite, and it doubles as an economics crossover through food inflation. Expect questions on whether El Niño is the warm or cool phase of ENSO, which UN body the FAO is and where it is headquartered, the kharif-versus-rabi distinction, and which Indian agency measures CPI. The food-versus-fuel angle (vegetable oils into biofuels) is the fresh hook. Connect the Pacific anomaly to a weak Indian monsoon to lower output to higher prices — examiners reward that chain of reasoning.
| Declared by | NOAA (US), on June 11, 2026 |
| Probability of ‘very strong’ | 62-63% during Oct-Jan |
| FAO Food Price Index (May 2026) | 130.8 (peak: 160.2 in March 2022) |
| Standout commodity | Vegetable oils — index 185, +21.5% y-o-y |
| India CPI food inflation | 4.78% (up from a -5.02% trough) |
| FAO basics | UN agency, est. 1945, HQ Rome |
“El Niño = warm & dry for India (weak monsoon); La Niña = cool & wet”. And “FAO = Food & Agriculture Org, Rome, since ’45”. For seasons: “Kharif Comes with the rains, Rabi Rests in winter”.
Why This Matters for CLAT: El Niño threads geography, economics and institutions into a single story, which is exactly why it makes such durable exam material. For CLAT 2027 the case rewards a clean causal chain — a warm Pacific anomaly weakens the Walker Circulation, which weakens the Indian monsoon, which hits the kharif crop, which feeds into CPI food inflation tracked by the NSO. Layer on the FAO Food Price Index and the food-versus-fuel angle, and you can handle any climate-economy passage the paper sets.
Practice Quiz — 10 CLAT-Style Questions
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