CURRENT AFFAIRS | 23 JUNE 2026
India’s monsoon has stumbled out of the gate, and a strengthening El Niño threatens to make things worse. With rainfall sharply below normal and the RBI already trimming growth forecasts, the climate story has become an economics story — and a CLAT-relevant one.
What Happened
India’s southwest monsoon (June-September) cumulative all-India rainfall is about 42.8% below normal for the period so far, attributed to weak monsoon winds and the absence of an active eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the southwest monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 4 — three days later than normal. Global agencies forecast the current El Niño to intensify to “strong” over August-September and “very strong” over October-January. The last strong-to-very-strong El Niño events, in 2023-24 and 2015-16, were both drought years for India.
The macroeconomic fallout is already visible. The RBI’s “State of the Economy” article cautioned that a monsoon shortfall could weigh on growth and inflation. The RBI lowered its growth projection from 6.9% to 6.6% and raised its inflation forecast from 4.6% to 5%, reflecting the risk that a weak monsoon pushes up food and cereal prices and feeds into CPI inflation.
⚖️ Constitutional & Legal Framework
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Pacific. El Niño is the warm phase — a warming of the central and eastern Pacific that typically suppresses the Indian monsoon and raises food prices; La Niña is the cool phase, generally favourable for the monsoon; and there is an ENSO-neutral phase in between. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influences the monsoon. The IMD, which issues India’s forecasts, functions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
🎯 Why This Matters for CLAT
This is a high-value cross-domain story linking environment/geography (ENSO, IOD, MJO), economy (RBI growth and inflation projections, CPI, food prices) and governance (IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences). Expect cause-and-effect reasoning passages (why does El Niño raise inflation?) and factual GK on phases of ENSO and forecast agencies. The RBI’s revised numbers are precise data points examiners love.
📌 Key Facts
| Rainfall so far | ~42.8% below normal |
| Monsoon onset (Kerala) | June 4 (3 days late) |
| El Niño outlook | “Strong” (Aug-Sep), “very strong” (Oct-Jan) |
| RBI growth projection | Cut from 6.9% to 6.6% |
| RBI inflation forecast | Raised from 4.6% to 5% |
| Forecast agency | IMD (Ministry of Earth Sciences) |
🧠 Memory Hook
“El Niño = Empty (bad monsoon), La Niña = Lavish (good monsoon)” — the warm phase dries up India, the cool phase brings rain. Remember 2015-16 and 2023-24 as the twin drought years that strong El Niños delivered.
📝 Test yourself — take the 10-question quiz below:
Practice Quiz — 10 CLAT-Style Questions
Click an option to reveal the answer and explanation.
