CLAT-2027 Blog

RBI Annual Report 2025-26: End of Cheap Money — FPI Outflows, Bond Yields Surge

CURRENT AFFAIRS | JUNE 2, 2026

The Reserve Bank of India’s Annual Report 2025-26, released on June 1, 2026, flagged a structural shift in global capital markets — what RBI Chief Economic Advisor Dr. Anantha Nageswaran called “perhaps the single most consequential development” of recent times: the apparent end of the cheap-money era. Sovereign bond yields across advanced economies have surged, foreign portfolio investors have begun pulling capital out of emerging markets, and the long-running tailwind of ultra-low global rates that powered Indian equity inflows for over a decade is reversing.

Constitutional & Legal Framework

  • RBI Act, 1934 — Section 45ZB constitutes the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Section 45ZA fixes the inflation target.
  • FEMA, 1999 — governs foreign exchange transactions including FPI/FDI inflows.
  • Public Debt Act, 1944 — regulates Government of India securities.
  • Article 112 — Annual Financial Statement (Budget) laid before Parliament.
  • Article 280 — Finance Commission, recommends fiscal transfers between Union and States.

The headline numbers are stark. Japan’s 10-year sovereign bond yield has climbed from 1.54% to 2.52%; the US 10-year sits at 4.40%, the UK at 4.93%. India’s net capital flows reversed from +$8.91 billion in 2024-25 to -$9.93 billion in April-December 2025. FPI net equity investment, which was +$18.1 billion across all of 2024-25, has slumped to -$580 million in just the first two months of 2025-26. The decade-old yield gap between US Treasuries and Indian government bonds — historically over 4 percentage points — has narrowed to roughly 2.5 percentage points, eroding the carry-trade advantage that pulled global capital into India.

CLAT Angle — Why this matters for legal-reasoning questions

Monetary policy fundamentals (repo rate, CRR, SLR, OMO), the MPC’s flexible inflation targeting mandate, distinctions between FPI and FDI, balance-of-payments composition (current vs capital account), and the constitutional architecture of fiscal federalism (Articles 112, 270, 280) all feature regularly in CLAT GK and legal-reasoning passages. Candidates should also be alert to the RBI’s twin mandate — price stability and growth — under the Amended RBI Act framework.

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Key Facts at a Glance

Indicator Value
Japan 10-yr bond yield 2.52% (from 1.54%)
US 10-yr bond yield 4.40%
India net capital flows (Apr-Dec 2025) -$9.93 billion
FPI net equity (first 2 months FY26) -$580 million
MPC inflation target 4% ± 2%

The “pull” vs “push” framework that economists use to explain capital flows now leans heavily on India’s domestic fundamentals. With cheap global money ebbing, India’s high GDP growth (the “pull” factor) must do the heavy lifting that loose monetary conditions abroad (the “push” factor) once supplied. The RBI Annual Report warns that this transition will test the resilience of India’s external sector, current-account financing, and rupee stability over the medium term.

Mnemonic — “RAFT” floats the rupee

RBI Act 1934 · Annual Report · FEMA 1999 · Targeting inflation at 4±2%. When the cheap-money tide goes out, only the RAFT keeps you afloat — India’s monetary policy architecture is the lifeline.

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